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New report by the Education Policy and Data Center calls for greater attention to data quality on out-of-school children
As part of the ambitious Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set in the year 2000, the international community pledged to achieve universal primary education by 2015. As we approach the milestone year of 2015, it is evident that the goal is still far from being reached, and that much remains to be done to remove barriers to schooling. In its June 2013 Fact Sheet, UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) laments the reduction in bilateral aid to education over recent years, linking this development to seemingly stagnating numbers of out-of-school children. At the same time philanthropies and foundations – pledge resources to expand educational opportunity, while searching for practical, sustainable solutions, calling for innovation, and accountability. Meanwhile, as the FHI 360 Education Policy and Data Center (EPDC) suggests in its recent report, data availability and reliability have lagged behind, making the regional and global estimates of out- of- school children extremely difficult– as illustrated by the regular revisions of these numbers issued by international agencies.
Improving data quality
Led by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) and UNICEF, the Global Initiative on Out-of-School-Childrenhas begun important work in resolving data issues, working with a group of 26 countries. Broad-based support of this initiative – both in policy debate as well as in the level of resources allocated– is necessary from the entire education community, to improve data collection, reporting, analysis, and understanding of data on out- of- school children.
Data quality deserves no less attention than education interventions – if we are ever to ascertain progress in expanding educational opportunity. There is no question that this is a large problem and the implications are important for development. Broad estimates may be sufficient for advocacy purposes, generating a sense of urgency around the issue. However, a more nuanced understanding of what is and is not known can affect the efficacy and allocation of resources. The new EPDC report re-focuses attention on data challenges and offers ideas to further streamline metrics and improve transparency around data limitations.
Reliable education data is scarce
First and foremost, we must face the fact that reliable and timely data on out-of-school children continue to be extremely scarce. A review of available UIS data shows a considerable amount of missing information, particularly for countries where the number of out-of-school children could potentially be quite high, given their recent history (i.e. Sierra Leone, Sudan, South Sudan and Haiti). For some countries, such as Bangladesh and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the figures factored into the global estimate are not published, and the most recent figures available from UIS are more than a decade old (1990-1995).
In any given year since 1999, national-level data on the number of out- of- school children are not published for nearly 40% of the countries listed in the UIS Data Centre. Some estimates were reportedly factored into the regional aggregate values to account for the missing countries, but the absence of such a large proportion of country-level figures undermines the reliability of global metrics.
Select countries from UIS E-Atlas on Out of School Children
 Expand the use of household survey data
This situation could be amended with greater inclusion of household survey data, which are currently used sporadically, if at all. The Global Initiative on Out-of-School Children has already started a review of all available sources of information for several countries, as well as for Latin America and the Caribbean as a region. At this time, however, the survey data remain in the reports, and have yet to be integrated into the UIS Data Centre or the UIS e-Atlas on Out of School Children.
Both of these international data sources are confined to the latest available data reported to UNESCO by national education agencies – and in some cases, the data are over a decade old. Because of this “unofficial” status, the extent to which survey data are factored into the regional and global aggregate values at this time is difficult to know. Furthermore, even when administrative data are not missing, in some cases surveys may offer a better gauge on school participation. For this reason, we call for a wider and more transparent use of a variety of data sources.
Different data sources – different numbers
Using multiple data sources, however, opens up the issue of data discrepancy across sources. A review conducted by EPDC as part of the report revealed that school participation rates may vary dramatically across administrative (school census) and household survey or national census data. While there is usually only one survey conducted in a given year, it is safe to expect that if there were several surveys, results could also differ – albeit, within reasonable bounds of error.
How much error are we willing to accept? In order to answer that question, we need to know what the discrepancies are in available data, and what implications they have for our understanding of the school exclusion problem. As this report shows, the gaps between survey-based and administrative estimates of the numbers of out-of- school children have the potential of altering priorities and types of interventions needed to get more children in school.
Out of school rates for primary-aged children, ISCED definition
While the issue of data discrepancies is inherently complex and requires in-depth review of each case, there are aspects that can be tackled more easily.. One such aspect is the disaggregation of out-of-school rates, and consequently, the numbers of out-of-school children, by level of education: e.g. primary or secondary. The focus on primary education stems from the MDG agenda, and on first look, seems intuitive and realistic. However, as we begin to pool data across countries and time series, the picture becomes more complex. The duration of primary education (as well as secondary) differs across countries, and may even differ within the same country. Consequently, primary-level out-of-school indicators from different countries pertain to different target populations. One way to make cross-national data comparable is to measure the number of out-of-school children by age group, rather than by class level. Measuring access to education for children ages 7-14, as EPDC proposes in its report, would not only allow for comparable data, but also refocus attention on the fact that all children must have access to quality education – not just those falling in the primary- level age brackets in a given country.
Another aspect is the definition of “in school” vs. “out of school” status. At this time, UNESCO and UNICEF consider enrollment in non-formal education as “out of school”. In countries where non-formal education is prevalent, though, this approach may inflate the actual number of out-of-school children. Given the growth of non-formal education, as well as the acceptance of innovative education models to reach marginalized groups of children, an expanded definition of in-school status may be needed.
We recognize that a precise number of out-of-school children may not be attainable at this time, and that improving data quality and timeliness requires substantial investment of resources and time. While metrics are still fuzzy, it is important that education stakeholders and analysts are aware of data gaps, discrepancies, consistency concerns, and the caveats with which available information must be used. The extent of missing data at the national level warrants a certain amount of sensitivity to aggregated values, particularly those at the regional and global level.
Greater transparency and clarity about the limitations of the data and the assumptions used to fill in gaps would go a long way towards improving the use of the data and lead to a more efficient allocation of scarce resources. Data quality is everyone’s concern. A concerted effort in establishing and maintaining reliable metrics of school participation is, we believe, an essential element of achieving global success.
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