New Policy Paper: The number of out-of-school children is stagnating
Fresh data published today in our new Policy Paper - prepared jointly with the UNESCO Institute for Statistics - shows that progress towards reducing the number of out-of-school children is stagnating. The Paper finds that 61 million children of primary school age were out of school in 2010, a similar number to the previous year.
As government leaders and policy makers prepare to meet at the Rio+20 conference later this month, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of education for development. The new paper highlights five of the many reasons governments cannot allow progress on reducing the number of out-of-school children to stall.
Numbers of children out of school are
stagnating
According to the latest data from the UNESCO
Institute for Statistics (UIS), 61 million children of
primary school age were out of school in 2010.
1
The global out-of-school figure had been on a
decline over the previous 15 years, falling from
105 million in 1990. Progress was greatest
immediately after the World Education Forum in
Dakar in 2000, when world leaders committed to
achieve Education for All by 2015 (Figure 1). In
addition, efforts to improve educational access
for girls have paid off. In 2010, girls accounted
for 53% of out-of-school children, compared with
58% in 2000.
Despite overall positive signs, the decline in outof-school figures has slowed down since 2005.
Worryingly, the number of out-of-school children
has remained at 61 million over the last three
years. Much of this global stagnation is due to
trends in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number
of children out of school has actually risen over
the past three years, from 29 million in 2008 to
31 million in 2010. Although enrolment has
continued to rise, it has not kept pace with the
increase in population.
Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for half of all outof-school children worldwide and has the highest
out-of-school rate of all regions; almost one in
four (23%) primary school age children have
either never attended school or left school
without completing primary education. Out-ofschool figures in sub-Saharan Africa have
declined far less than in other regions, from
38 million in 1990 to 31 million in 2010.
Reaching out-of-school children is
crucial for development
Policy Paper 04
June 2012
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
1
This paper, jointly released by the Education for All Global Monitoring Report and the UNESCO Institute
for Statistics, shows that progress in reducing the number of children out of school has stalled. This not
only denies millions of children their right to education, but also jeopardizes wider development efforts.
The paper sets out five reasons why reversing this trend is urgent.
Figure 1: Number of out-of-school children by region and sex, 1990-2010
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
17.7 million
20.3 million
13.5 million
25.6 million
11.2 million
16.7 million
World in 1990
105.0 million
18.8 million
21.9 million
13.6 million
24.2 million
10.8 million
12.8 million
World in 2000
102.1 million
14.4 million
16.3 million
5.9 million
7.3 million
8.3 million
8.5 million
World in 2010
60.7 million
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mill oi n
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rest of world
South and West Asia
Sub−Saharan Africa
Source: UIS database, 2012.
By contrast, South and West Asia have made great
gains over the past two decades, reducing the
number of out-of-school children by two-thirds
from 39 million in 1990 to 13 million in 2010. In
2010, the out-of-school rate in South and West
Asia was 8%.
The remaining regions have significantly fewer
children out of school: Arab States (5.0 million),
Latin America and the Caribbean (2.7 million),
North America and Western Europe (1.3 million),
Central and Eastern Europe (0.9 million), and
Central Asia (0.3 million). Typically, it is the
marginalized, the poor, remote rural populations,
those affected by conflict, and, ethnic, racial and
linguistic minorities, that are denied an opportunity
for schooling, as analyses in EFA Global Monitoring
Reports underscore. Exclusion from education also
threatens development progress more generally.
How many children are out of school across
regions?
Out-of-school patterns vary across and within
regions. In 2010, there were 19 countries with
more than 500,000 out-of-school children (Figure
2). A number of these countries are in subSaharan Africa. Nigeria alone was home to 10.5
million out-of-school children – 3.6 million more
than in 2000 – or 42% of its primary school age
population. Ethiopia had 2.4 million children out of
school, which represents 18% of the country’s
primary school age population. While this
number is high, Ethiopia has made considerable
progress since 2000, when 6.3 million children
(60% of the primary school age population) were
out of school.
Other countries with more than 500,000 out-ofschool children in 2010 are in South and West Asia
(Pakistan and India), East Asia and the Pacific
(Philippines and Thailand), and the Arab States
(Yemen).
Have these children ever been to school? What
are their chances of enrolling in the future?
Of the 61 million children who were out of school
in 2010, 47% are expected to never enter school. A
further 26% have attended but left school, and the
remaining 27% are expected to enter school in the
future (Figure 3).
Regional data show large variations in these
patterns. In Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa,
the Arab States, and South and West Asia, about
half of all out-of-school children are expected to
never enter school. In Latin America and the
Caribbean, North America and Western Europe,
and Central and Eastern Europe, most out-ofschool children will start school late. East Asia and
the Pacific, as well as South and West Asia, have a
large share of early school leavers among their
out-of-school populations.
Education for All Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 04
Figure 2: Countries with more than 500,000 children out of school, 2010
857
611
1,460
2,278
5,125
567
623
679
858
1,010
1,086
1,128
1,161
2,390
10,542
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Out−of−school children (thousand)
Yemen
Thailand
(b)
Philippines
(b)
India
(c)
Pakistan
Ghana
(a)
Uganda
South Africa
(b)
Mali
Kenya
(b)
Niger
Burkina Faso
Côte d’Ivoire
(b)
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Notes: (a) Data for 2011; (b) Data for 2009; (c) Data for 2008. Figure presents selected countries with available data.
Source: UIS database, 2012.The classification of out-of-school children by past
and possible future school attendance yields
important insights for policymakers. If the majority
of out-of-school children in a country attended but
left school, programmes and interventions should
focus on reducing the dropout rate by improving
the quality of education and addressing issues
such as the direct and indirect costs of education.
For children who are likely to attend school in the
future, the goal is to ensure earlier entry into the
education system. Children who are expected to
never gain access to schooling – roughly 28 million
of the global number out of school – pose the most
serious challenges to policymakers. One of the
first steps in reaching out-of-school children is to
better identify who they are (see Box 1).
Gender, geography and socio-economic status:
Which children are out-of-school?
In all countries, whatever their level of development,
some individuals and groups experience extreme
and persistent disadvantage in education. As well
as being a sign of social deprivation in its own
right, disadvantage in education is a cause and
an effect of marginalization in other areas and
a powerful transmitter of deprivation across
generations.
In 2010, among countries with available data, 47
countries had more than 100,000 out-of-school
children of primary school age. For 30 of these
countries, which account for 34 million of
the 61 million out of school worldwide, data from
nationally representative household surveys
conducted between 2003 and 2010 were available
for analysis.
2
Policy Paper 04
Figure 3: School exposure of out-of-school children of primary school age by region, 2010
Sub−Saharan Africa 20
West Asia
South and
45 7
25
49
55 30.6
13.3
9
19
7
11
the Pacific
East Asia and
Arab States
the Caribbean
Latin America and
Western Europe
North America and
Central and
55
79
56
41
47
36
2
38
49
38 15 6.6
5.0
2.7
1.3
0.9
6.6
5.0
26
8
9
0
Eastern Europe
Central Asia
World 27
41
55
20 40 60
school in the future
Likely to enter
Left school
47
51
36
80 100%
enter school
Unlikely to ever
school in the future
0
0.9
0.3
60.7
out of school
Million children
Source: UIS database, 2012.
In 2009, UNICEF and the UIS launched a global
initiative to provide the data required to inform
policies aimed at reducing the number of out-ofschool children. The specific objectives of the project
are to:
improve information and statistical analysis of
data on out-of-school children and develop
complex profiles of these children that reflect the
multiple deprivations and disparities they face in
relation to education; and
analyse existing interventions related to enhanced
school participation, identify bottlenecks and
develop context-appropriate policies and
strategies for increasing enrolment and attendance
of excluded and marginalized children.
Twenty-six countries from seven regions are
currently engaged in the initiative. It will result in
country and regional studies, a global report on outof-school children and a methodological document.
The aim is to support education sector planning and
reform efforts, as well as annual sector and budget
reviews within the framework of the Global
Partnership for Education.
Box 1: Global initiative on out-of-school children
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
3In these 30 countries, an average of 26% of all
primary school-age children were out of school
(Figure 4). Girls are more likely to be out of school
(28%) than boys (25%). The gap between urban
and rural areas is even wider. Rural children are
twice as likely to be out of school as urban
children. There is also a clear link between
household wealth and the probability of not being
in school. Compared with children from the
richest quintile (20%) of households, children from
the poorest quintile are four times more likely to
be out of school. The probability of being out of
school decreases steadily with increasing
household wealth.
From a policymaking perspective, disaggregated
data help to better identify those children most at
risk of educational exclusion. For example, the
combination of sex and location of residence
reveals that girls from rural areas are more likely
to be out of school than boys from rural areas and
children of either sex from urban areas. The
biggest disparity exists between rural girls and
urban boys.
It is also important to consider the interaction
between sex and household wealth. Within each
wealth quintile, girls are always more likely to be
out of school than boys, but the gap shrinks with
increasing household wealth. Overall, the highest
percentage of children out of school is observed
among girls from the poorest household quintile
(43%). Boys from the richest household quintile
are the least likely to be out of school (9%).
The considerable wealth and gender divides
become even more apparent when focusing on
one of the 30 countries included in the dataset. In
Pakistan, for example, around one in four 7- to
16-year-olds had never been to school at all in
2007 and most will probably not have the chance
to enter a classroom. It is the poorest females
who are most likely to be excluded. While almost
all of those in the richest households are able to
go to school, whether boys or girls, around half of
those from poorest households do not. Among the
poorest girls, as many as two in three have never
been to school.
3
Five reasons why education must be
at the forefront of Rio+20
While making sure every child can go to school
is an imperative in itself, achieving universal
education would also bring about far-reaching
development benefits. Failing to further reduce
the number of out-of-school children leaves
millions in poverty, with bad health and lacking
opportunities. The right to education is not just
about education – it is a key right that unlocks
other human rights and Millennium Development
Goals. It must therefore be at the centre of any
development agenda – and especially at the
Rio+20 conference.
4
1. Education reduces poverty and promotes
economic growth
By making people more skilled and employable,
education can provide an escape route from
poverty. In low-income countries, an additional
year of education adds about 10% to a person’s
income on average. The returns to education are
highest for low-income countries, primary and
secondary schooling and women.
Children from poor households are far more likely
to drop out of school, or not enrol, than children
from wealthier homes. In some countries,
including Burkina Faso, Niger, Uganda and
Policy Paper 04
4
Total
Male
Female
Urban
Rural
15
26
25
28
31
Richest quintile
Second richest quintile
Middle quintile
Second poorest quintile
Poorest quintile
Urban male
Urban female
Rural male
Rural female
Richest male
Richest female
Second richest male 9
10
20
14
16
9
11
19
2
26
31
40
29
33
0
Second richest female
Middle male
Middle female
Second poorest male
Second poorest female
Poorest male
Poorest female
10
21
20 30
25
27
29
8
33
38
40%
43
Note: Mean values are unweighted.
Source: Household survey data from 30 countries, 2003-2010.
Figure 4: Average out-of-school rate by individual and household
characteristics (in 30 countries)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
7-16 year olds who never been to
school %( )
Poorest 20%
Pakistan
Richest 20%
Male
Female
Female
Male
7700
60
50
40
30
20
10
s
Pakistan
chool %( )
7-16 year olds who never been to
M l
Female
Female
Male
Richest 20%
Pakistan
Poorest 20%
Female
Female
0
Richest 20% Male
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report team analysis based on
the 2007 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)
Figure 5: Share of population aged 7-16 who have
never been, by wealth and gender, Pakistan 2007
Education for All Global Monitoring ReportZambia, children from the poorest 20% of
households are more than twice as likely to drop
out as children from the wealthiest households.
Given that access to education can help people
lift themselves out of poverty, it is vital that
governments provide opportunities for the poorest
to enrol. Increasing poor families’ income can
enhance education prospects. Several countries
have introduced cash transfers with eligibility
linked to school attendance.
Education can also boost economic growth. One
study of 50 countries between 1960 and 2000
found that an additional year of schooling lifted
GDP by 0.37% annually. The impact of improved
cognitive skills was considerably larger, with
the combined effect adding, on average, a full
percentage point to annual GDP growth. Economic
growth matters because it raises average income.
By raising the productivity of the poor, more
equitable education can increase overall growth
and the share of growth that accrues to those
below the poverty line.
2. Maternal education improves children’s
nutrition and chances of survival
Across the world, 26% of children less than
5 years-old are short for their age (stunted), and
19 million infants – 14% of all newborns – are
delivered with low birth weight.
5
Children of more
educated mothers are less likely to be stunted or
underweight due to malnutrition. Maternal
education also lowers child mortality – each
additional year of maternal education can reduce
the risk of child death by 7% to 9%.
Sending every child to primary school would be an
important first step. The benefits of every child
going through to secondary school are enormous:
If the average child mortality rate for sub-Saharan
Africa were to fall to the level for children born to
mothers with some secondary education, there
would be 1.8 million fewer deaths – a 41%
reduction. Since education is correlated with
higher income – which in turn influences nutrition,
for example, and access to clean water – it is
difficult to isolate an ‘education effect’. Nonetheless
many studies find that maternal education has a
statistically significant effect, even after controlling
for other factors.
Educated mothers are also more likely to give birth
in safe conditions. In Burkina Faso, for example,
mothers with secondary education are twice as
likely to give birth in health facilities as those with
no education. In addition, women with education
are far more likely to immunize their children and
seek antenatal care. In Indonesia, for example,
child vaccination rates are 19% when mothers
have no education and 68% when mothers have at
least secondary school education.
3. Education helps fight HIV/AIDS and other
diseases
About 1,000 children are infected with HIV every
day – almost all of them during their mother’s
pregnancy, during childbirth or when they are
being breastfed. These infections could be avoided
if mothers knew more about how HIV is transmitted.
Women with post-primary education are five times
more likely than illiterate women to be educated
about HIV and AIDS.
As figure 6 shows, only 59% of mothers with
no formal education surveyed in 16 countries
in sub-Saharan Africa knew that condoms could
help reduce the spread of HIV. Among mothers
who had completed primary school, 72% knew
how important it is for their partners to use
condoms. For mothers who had completed
secondary school, the ratio was even higher
– 81%. Similarly, awareness of mother-to-child
transmission and the effects of anti-retroviral
drugs increased with years of schooling.
Although the strongest benefits are found in
mothers who have completed secondary school,
significant benefits also arise with the completion
of primary school.
Education can also reduce the spread of HIV
by promoting safer sexual behaviour. Evidence
shows that sexual education addresses the
structural factors that facilitate the spread of
HIV, including lack of opportunity and gender
inequality.
6
In fact, the outcome of such education
can be so beneficial that it is cost-saving for
society to provide it.
7
Education alone does not stop the spread of HIV,
malaria and other life-threatening diseases, but
neither does medicine alone. Without the
awareness of the ways diseases are transmitted
and of the means available to protect oneself and
one’s children, people will not be able to take
advantage of medical care.
4. Education promotes gender equality
The majority of the world’s out-of-school children
– 53% – are girls. As a consequence of the
historical gender bias in education, almost twothirds of the world’s illiterate adults are women.
While some countries have made great progress
towards gender parity in education, in 26 countries
there are less than 9 girls per 10 boys in primary
school. Investing in girls’ education and reaching
the goal of gender parity would enable gender
equality elsewhere in society.
Policy Paper 04
5
Education for All Global Monitoring Report6
Education empowers women to make key
decisions about their lives. For example, education
plays avital role in giving women more control
over how many children they have. In Mali, for
example, women with secondary education or
higher have an average of three children – while
those with no education have an average of seven.
An extra year of female schooling reduces fertility
rates by 10%.
8
Giving girls equal access to school is also crucial
to reach gender equality in the labour market.
Although there is no simple association between
the level of schooling and labour market
outcomes, evidence from many countries shows
that schooling increases an individual’s chances
of employment.
5. Education promotes democracy and
participation in society
Education has effects far beyond the classroom.
Through education, societies foster values, spread
ideas and equip their citizens with skills for
participation in society. As Nelson Mandela stated,
“Education is the most powerful weapon which you
can use to change the world”.
Although there are examples of well-educated
undemocratic societies, as well as poorly
educated well-functioning democracies,
education is conducive to democracy. Evidence
from sub-Saharan Africa shows that increasing
access to primary school promotes citizen
endorsement of democracy and rejection of
non-democratic alternatives. People of voting
age with a primary education were 1.5 times
more likely to support democracy than people
with no education – those who had completed
secondary school were three times more likely.
This evidence strongly suggests that investment
in high-quality education may be among the
most effective antidotes to autocracy and
unaccountable governance.
One reason for this is that education helps people
make informed judgements. For governments and
populations facing challenges worldwide, an
educated population is crucial. Education has a
key role in fostering national and international
support for the multilateral governance needed to
address problems such as finance, trade, security
and environmental sustainability.
A population with at least some understanding of
the science behind climate change, for example,
is more likely to support political solutions to
the threat. The OECD’S 2006 Programme for
International Student Assessment (PISA) found
Policy Paper 04
N O N E
P R I M A RY
S ECO N DA RY
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
% of mothers
who know that
HIV and AIDS ...
all true statements
... mother to child transmission can be
prevented using anti-retroviral treatment
during pregnancy
... can be reduced by using condoms
… cannot be transmitted through
supernatural means
... can be transmitted through breastfeeding
81%
72%
59%
59%
42%
31%
84%
72%
62%
71%
64%
77%
Figure 6: Percentage of female respondents answering questions on HIV and AIDS awareness, by education,
selected Sub-Saharan African countries, 2004-2007
Source: 2011 EFA Global Monitoring Report
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
that countries with high scientific literacy had
higher awareness of environmental issues, and a
stronger sense of responsibility for sustainable
development.
Conclusion
These are five of the many reasons why education
should be the centre of any development agenda –
especially at the Rio+20 conference. The flip side of
every potential development benefit of sending
children to school is that for the millions of
children who are out of school, there are
devastating effects. As the new data presented in
this policy paper points out, these children are
typically poor and rural. In other words, those who
are missing out on these benefits are often those
who need them the most.
The Education for All goals must remain at the top
of the development agenda if we are to have any
chance of reaching the wider targets of Rio+20 and
the Millennium Development Goals by 2015.
Policy Paper 04
Notes
1. In 2011, UNESCO estimated that 67 million children of primary school age were out of school
in 2009. In 2012, UNESCO revised its estimate for 2009 to 61 million children out of school, the
same number as in 2010. The difference between the estimates published in 2011 and 2012 is
largely due to revised estimates of the school-age population by the UN Population Division. The
latest evidence shows that the numbers out of school have remained virtually unchanged
between 2008 and 2010 (see Figure 1).
2. The data are from international household surveys conducted between 2003 and 2010: (1)
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS): Philippines 2003; Chad, Morocco, Turkey 2004; Ethiopia,
Guinea, Senegal, 2005; Burkina Faso, India, Mali, Nepal, the Niger, Uganda 2006; Indonesia,
Pakistan, Ukraine, Zambia 2007; Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria 2008; Kenya, Madagascar 2009; Colombia
and United Republic of Tanzania 2010. (2) Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS): Cameroon,
Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire 2006; Mauritania 2007; Mozambique 2008. (3) Pesquisa
Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD): Brazil 2006.
3. Data on disparities in access to education for 80 countries are available online via the
Education for All Global Monitoring Report’s Deprivation and Marginalization in Education (DME)
dataset at www.unesco.org/en/efareport/dme.
4. The following discussion draws on sections of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 EFA Global Monitoring
Reports. Unless otherwise is stated, all references to the evidence presented in this paper can
be found in these Reports.
5. UNICEF. 2008. The State of the World’s Children 2009. Maternal and Newborn Health. New
York, UNICEF.
6. UNESCO. 2011. UNESCO’s Strategy for HIV and AIDS. Paris, UNESCO.
7. UNESCO. 2011. School-Based Sexuality Education Programmes: A Cost and CostEffectiveness Analysis in Six Countries. Paris, UNESCO.
8. The World Bank. 2009. Age at First Child: Does Education Delay Fertility Timing? Policy
ReNumbers of children out of school are
stagnating
According to the latest data from the UNESCO
Institute for Statistics (UIS), 61 million children of
primary school age were out of school in 2010.
1
The global out-of-school figure had been on a
decline over the previous 15 years, falling from
105 million in 1990. Progress was greatest
immediately after the World Education Forum in
Dakar in 2000, when world leaders committed to
achieve Education for All by 2015 (Figure 1). In
addition, efforts to improve educational access
for girls have paid off. In 2010, girls accounted
for 53% of out-of-school children, compared with
58% in 2000.
Despite overall positive signs, the decline in outof-school figures has slowed down since 2005.
Worryingly, the number of out-of-school children
has remained at 61 million over the last three
years. Much of this global stagnation is due to
trends in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number
of children out of school has actually risen over
the past three years, from 29 million in 2008 to
31 million in 2010. Although enrolment has
continued to rise, it has not kept pace with the
increase in population.
Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for half of all outof-school children worldwide and has the highest
out-of-school rate of all regions; almost one in
four (23%) primary school age children have
either never attended school or left school
without completing primary education. Out-ofschool figures in sub-Saharan Africa have
declined far less than in other regions, from
38 million in 1990 to 31 million in 2010.
Reaching out-of-school children is
crucial for development
Policy Paper 04
June 2012
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
1
This paper, jointly released by the Education for All Global Monitoring Report and the UNESCO Institute
for Statistics, shows that progress in reducing the number of children out of school has stalled. This not
only denies millions of children their right to education, but also jeopardizes wider development efforts.
The paper sets out five reasons why reversing this trend is urgent.
Figure 1: Number of out-of-school children by region and sex, 1990-2010
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
17.7 million
20.3 million
13.5 million
25.6 million
11.2 million
16.7 million
World in 1990
105.0 million
18.8 million
21.9 million
13.6 million
24.2 million
10.8 million
12.8 million
World in 2000
102.1 million
14.4 million
16.3 million
5.9 million
7.3 million
8.3 million
8.5 million
World in 2010
60.7 million
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mill oi n
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rest of world
South and West Asia
Sub−Saharan Africa
Source: UIS database, 2012.
By contrast, South and West Asia have made great
gains over the past two decades, reducing the
number of out-of-school children by two-thirds
from 39 million in 1990 to 13 million in 2010. In
2010, the out-of-school rate in South and West
Asia was 8%.
The remaining regions have significantly fewer
children out of school: Arab States (5.0 million),
Latin America and the Caribbean (2.7 million),
North America and Western Europe (1.3 million),
Central and Eastern Europe (0.9 million), and
Central Asia (0.3 million). Typically, it is the
marginalized, the poor, remote rural populations,
those affected by conflict, and, ethnic, racial and
linguistic minorities, that are denied an opportunity
for schooling, as analyses in EFA Global Monitoring
Reports underscore. Exclusion from education also
threatens development progress more generally.
How many children are out of school across
regions?
Out-of-school patterns vary across and within
regions. In 2010, there were 19 countries with
more than 500,000 out-of-school children (Figure
2). A number of these countries are in subSaharan Africa. Nigeria alone was home to 10.5
million out-of-school children – 3.6 million more
than in 2000 – or 42% of its primary school age
population. Ethiopia had 2.4 million children out of
school, which represents 18% of the country’s
primary school age population. While this
number is high, Ethiopia has made considerable
progress since 2000, when 6.3 million children
(60% of the primary school age population) were
out of school.
Other countries with more than 500,000 out-ofschool children in 2010 are in South and West Asia
(Pakistan and India), East Asia and the Pacific
(Philippines and Thailand), and the Arab States
(Yemen).
Have these children ever been to school? What
are their chances of enrolling in the future?
Of the 61 million children who were out of school
in 2010, 47% are expected to never enter school. A
further 26% have attended but left school, and the
remaining 27% are expected to enter school in the
future (Figure 3).
Regional data show large variations in these
patterns. In Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa,
the Arab States, and South and West Asia, about
half of all out-of-school children are expected to
never enter school. In Latin America and the
Caribbean, North America and Western Europe,
and Central and Eastern Europe, most out-ofschool children will start school late. East Asia and
the Pacific, as well as South and West Asia, have a
large share of early school leavers among their
out-of-school populations.
Education for All Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 04
Figure 2: Countries with more than 500,000 children out of school, 2010
857
611
1,460
2,278
5,125
567
623
679
858
1,010
1,086
1,128
1,161
2,390
10,542
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Out−of−school children (thousand)
Yemen
Thailand
(b)
Philippines
(b)
India
(c)
Pakistan
Ghana
(a)
Uganda
South Africa
(b)
Mali
Kenya
(b)
Niger
Burkina Faso
Côte d’Ivoire
(b)
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Notes: (a) Data for 2011; (b) Data for 2009; (c) Data for 2008. Figure presents selected countries with available data.
Source: UIS database, 2012.The classification of out-of-school children by past
and possible future school attendance yields
important insights for policymakers. If the majority
of out-of-school children in a country attended but
left school, programmes and interventions should
focus on reducing the dropout rate by improving
the quality of education and addressing issues
such as the direct and indirect costs of education.
For children who are likely to attend school in the
future, the goal is to ensure earlier entry into the
education system. Children who are expected to
never gain access to schooling – roughly 28 million
of the global number out of school – pose the most
serious challenges to policymakers. One of the
first steps in reaching out-of-school children is to
better identify who they are (see Box 1).
Gender, geography and socio-economic status:
Which children are out-of-school?
In all countries, whatever their level of development,
some individuals and groups experience extreme
and persistent disadvantage in education. As well
as being a sign of social deprivation in its own
right, disadvantage in education is a cause and
an effect of marginalization in other areas and
a powerful transmitter of deprivation across
generations.
In 2010, among countries with available data, 47
countries had more than 100,000 out-of-school
children of primary school age. For 30 of these
countries, which account for 34 million of
the 61 million out of school worldwide, data from
nationally representative household surveys
conducted between 2003 and 2010 were available
for analysis.
2
Policy Paper 04
Figure 3: School exposure of out-of-school children of primary school age by region, 2010
Sub−Saharan Africa 20
West Asia
South and
45 7
25
49
55 30.6
13.3
9
19
7
11
the Pacific
East Asia and
Arab States
the Caribbean
Latin America and
Western Europe
North America and
Central and
55
79
56
41
47
36
2
38
49
38 15 6.6
5.0
2.7
1.3
0.9
6.6
5.0
26
8
9
0
Eastern Europe
Central Asia
World 27
41
55
20 40 60
school in the future
Likely to enter
Left school
47
51
36
80 100%
enter school
Unlikely to ever
school in the future
0
0.9
0.3
60.7
out of school
Million children
Source: UIS database, 2012.
In 2009, UNICEF and the UIS launched a global
initiative to provide the data required to inform
policies aimed at reducing the number of out-ofschool children. The specific objectives of the project
are to:
improve information and statistical analysis of
data on out-of-school children and develop
complex profiles of these children that reflect the
multiple deprivations and disparities they face in
relation to education; and
analyse existing interventions related to enhanced
school participation, identify bottlenecks and
develop context-appropriate policies and
strategies for increasing enrolment and attendance
of excluded and marginalized children.
Twenty-six countries from seven regions are
currently engaged in the initiative. It will result in
country and regional studies, a global report on outof-school children and a methodological document.
The aim is to support education sector planning and
reform efforts, as well as annual sector and budget
reviews within the framework of the Global
Partnership for Education.
Box 1: Global initiative on out-of-school children
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
3In these 30 countries, an average of 26% of all
primary school-age children were out of school
(Figure 4). Girls are more likely to be out of school
(28%) than boys (25%). The gap between urban
and rural areas is even wider. Rural children are
twice as likely to be out of school as urban
children. There is also a clear link between
household wealth and the probability of not being
in school. Compared with children from the
richest quintile (20%) of households, children from
the poorest quintile are four times more likely to
be out of school. The probability of being out of
school decreases steadily with increasing
household wealth.
From a policymaking perspective, disaggregated
data help to better identify those children most at
risk of educational exclusion. For example, the
combination of sex and location of residence
reveals that girls from rural areas are more likely
to be out of school than boys from rural areas and
children of either sex from urban areas. The
biggest disparity exists between rural girls and
urban boys.
It is also important to consider the interaction
between sex and household wealth. Within each
wealth quintile, girls are always more likely to be
out of school than boys, but the gap shrinks with
increasing household wealth. Overall, the highest
percentage of children out of school is observed
among girls from the poorest household quintile
(43%). Boys from the richest household quintile
are the least likely to be out of school (9%).
The considerable wealth and gender divides
become even more apparent when focusing on
one of the 30 countries included in the dataset. In
Pakistan, for example, around one in four 7- to
16-year-olds had never been to school at all in
2007 and most will probably not have the chance
to enter a classroom. It is the poorest females
who are most likely to be excluded. While almost
all of those in the richest households are able to
go to school, whether boys or girls, around half of
those from poorest households do not. Among the
poorest girls, as many as two in three have never
been to school.
3
Five reasons why education must be
at the forefront of Rio+20
While making sure every child can go to school
is an imperative in itself, achieving universal
education would also bring about far-reaching
development benefits. Failing to further reduce
the number of out-of-school children leaves
millions in poverty, with bad health and lacking
opportunities. The right to education is not just
about education – it is a key right that unlocks
other human rights and Millennium Development
Goals. It must therefore be at the centre of any
development agenda – and especially at the
Rio+20 conference.
4
1. Education reduces poverty and promotes
economic growth
By making people more skilled and employable,
education can provide an escape route from
poverty. In low-income countries, an additional
year of education adds about 10% to a person’s
income on average. The returns to education are
highest for low-income countries, primary and
secondary schooling and women.
Children from poor households are far more likely
to drop out of school, or not enrol, than children
from wealthier homes. In some countries,
including Burkina Faso, Niger, Uganda and
Policy Paper 04
4
Total
Male
Female
Urban
Rural
15
26
25
28
31
Richest quintile
Second richest quintile
Middle quintile
Second poorest quintile
Poorest quintile
Urban male
Urban female
Rural male
Rural female
Richest male
Richest female
Second richest male 9
10
20
14
16
9
11
19
2
26
31
40
29
33
0
Second richest female
Middle male
Middle female
Second poorest male
Second poorest female
Poorest male
Poorest female
10
21
20 30
25
27
29
8
33
38
40%
43
Note: Mean values are unweighted.
Source: Household survey data from 30 countries, 2003-2010.
Figure 4: Average out-of-school rate by individual and household
characteristics (in 30 countries)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
7-16 year olds who never been to
school %( )
Poorest 20%
Pakistan
Richest 20%
Male
Female
Female
Male
7700
60
50
40
30
20
10
s
Pakistan
chool %( )
7-16 year olds who never been to
M l
Female
Female
Male
Richest 20%
Pakistan
Poorest 20%
Female
Female
0
Richest 20% Male
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report team analysis based on
the 2007 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)
Figure 5: Share of population aged 7-16 who have
never been, by wealth and gender, Pakistan 2007
Education for All Global Monitoring ReportZambia, children from the poorest 20% of
households are more than twice as likely to drop
out as children from the wealthiest households.
Given that access to education can help people
lift themselves out of poverty, it is vital that
governments provide opportunities for the poorest
to enrol. Increasing poor families’ income can
enhance education prospects. Several countries
have introduced cash transfers with eligibility
linked to school attendance.
Education can also boost economic growth. One
study of 50 countries between 1960 and 2000
found that an additional year of schooling lifted
GDP by 0.37% annually. The impact of improved
cognitive skills was considerably larger, with
the combined effect adding, on average, a full
percentage point to annual GDP growth. Economic
growth matters because it raises average income.
By raising the productivity of the poor, more
equitable education can increase overall growth
and the share of growth that accrues to those
below the poverty line.
2. Maternal education improves children’s
nutrition and chances of survival
Across the world, 26% of children less than
5 years-old are short for their age (stunted), and
19 million infants – 14% of all newborns – are
delivered with low birth weight.
5
Children of more
educated mothers are less likely to be stunted or
underweight due to malnutrition. Maternal
education also lowers child mortality – each
additional year of maternal education can reduce
the risk of child death by 7% to 9%.
Sending every child to primary school would be an
important first step. The benefits of every child
going through to secondary school are enormous:
If the average child mortality rate for sub-Saharan
Africa were to fall to the level for children born to
mothers with some secondary education, there
would be 1.8 million fewer deaths – a 41%
reduction. Since education is correlated with
higher income – which in turn influences nutrition,
for example, and access to clean water – it is
difficult to isolate an ‘education effect’. Nonetheless
many studies find that maternal education has a
statistically significant effect, even after controlling
for other factors.
Educated mothers are also more likely to give birth
in safe conditions. In Burkina Faso, for example,
mothers with secondary education are twice as
likely to give birth in health facilities as those with
no education. In addition, women with education
are far more likely to immunize their children and
seek antenatal care. In Indonesia, for example,
child vaccination rates are 19% when mothers
have no education and 68% when mothers have at
least secondary school education.
3. Education helps fight HIV/AIDS and other
diseases
About 1,000 children are infected with HIV every
day – almost all of them during their mother’s
pregnancy, during childbirth or when they are
being breastfed. These infections could be avoided
if mothers knew more about how HIV is transmitted.
Women with post-primary education are five times
more likely than illiterate women to be educated
about HIV and AIDS.
As figure 6 shows, only 59% of mothers with
no formal education surveyed in 16 countries
in sub-Saharan Africa knew that condoms could
help reduce the spread of HIV. Among mothers
who had completed primary school, 72% knew
how important it is for their partners to use
condoms. For mothers who had completed
secondary school, the ratio was even higher
– 81%. Similarly, awareness of mother-to-child
transmission and the effects of anti-retroviral
drugs increased with years of schooling.
Although the strongest benefits are found in
mothers who have completed secondary school,
significant benefits also arise with the completion
of primary school.
Education can also reduce the spread of HIV
by promoting safer sexual behaviour. Evidence
shows that sexual education addresses the
structural factors that facilitate the spread of
HIV, including lack of opportunity and gender
inequality.
6
In fact, the outcome of such education
can be so beneficial that it is cost-saving for
society to provide it.
7
Education alone does not stop the spread of HIV,
malaria and other life-threatening diseases, but
neither does medicine alone. Without the
awareness of the ways diseases are transmitted
and of the means available to protect oneself and
one’s children, people will not be able to take
advantage of medical care.
4. Education promotes gender equality
The majority of the world’s out-of-school children
– 53% – are girls. As a consequence of the
historical gender bias in education, almost twothirds of the world’s illiterate adults are women.
While some countries have made great progress
towards gender parity in education, in 26 countries
there are less than 9 girls per 10 boys in primary
school. Investing in girls’ education and reaching
the goal of gender parity would enable gender
equality elsewhere in society.
Policy Paper 04
5
Education for All Global Monitoring Report6
Education empowers women to make key
decisions about their lives. For example, education
plays avital role in giving women more control
over how many children they have. In Mali, for
example, women with secondary education or
higher have an average of three children – while
those with no education have an average of seven.
An extra year of female schooling reduces fertility
rates by 10%.
8
Giving girls equal access to school is also crucial
to reach gender equality in the labour market.
Although there is no simple association between
the level of schooling and labour market
outcomes, evidence from many countries shows
that schooling increases an individual’s chances
of employment.
5. Education promotes democracy and
participation in society
Education has effects far beyond the classroom.
Through education, societies foster values, spread
ideas and equip their citizens with skills for
participation in society. As Nelson Mandela stated,
“Education is the most powerful weapon which you
can use to change the world”.
Although there are examples of well-educated
undemocratic societies, as well as poorly
educated well-functioning democracies,
education is conducive to democracy. Evidence
from sub-Saharan Africa shows that increasing
access to primary school promotes citizen
endorsement of democracy and rejection of
non-democratic alternatives. People of voting
age with a primary education were 1.5 times
more likely to support democracy than people
with no education – those who had completed
secondary school were three times more likely.
This evidence strongly suggests that investment
in high-quality education may be among the
most effective antidotes to autocracy and
unaccountable governance.
One reason for this is that education helps people
make informed judgements. For governments and
populations facing challenges worldwide, an
educated population is crucial. Education has a
key role in fostering national and international
support for the multilateral governance needed to
address problems such as finance, trade, security
and environmental sustainability.
A population with at least some understanding of
the science behind climate change, for example,
is more likely to support political solutions to
the threat. The OECD’S 2006 Programme for
International Student Assessment (PISA) found
Policy Paper 04
N O N E
P R I M A RY
S ECO N DA RY
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
% of mothers
who know that
HIV and AIDS ...
all true statements
... mother to child transmission can be
prevented using anti-retroviral treatment
during pregnancy
... can be reduced by using condoms
… cannot be transmitted through
supernatural means
... can be transmitted through breastfeeding
81%
72%
59%
59%
42%
31%
84%
72%
62%
71%
64%
77%
Figure 6: Percentage of female respondents answering questions on HIV and AIDS awareness, by education,
selected Sub-Saharan African countries, 2004-2007
Source: 2011 EFA Global Monitoring Report
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
that countries with high scientific literacy had
higher awareness of environmental issues, and a
stronger sense of responsibility for sustainable
development.
Conclusion
These are five of the many reasons why education
should be the centre of any development agenda –
especially at the Rio+20 conference. The flip side of
every potential development benefit of sending
children to school is that for the millions of
children who are out of school, there are
devastating effects. As the new data presented in
this policy paper points out, these children are
typically poor and rural. In other words, those who
are missing out on these benefits are often those
who need them the most.
The Education for All goals must remain at the top
of the development agenda if we are to have any
chance of reaching the wider targets of Rio+20 and
the Millennium Development Goals by 2015.
Policy Paper 04
Notes
1. In 2011, UNESCO estimated that 67 million children of primary school age were out of school
in 2009. In 2012, UNESCO revised its estimate for 2009 to 61 million children out of school, the
same number as in 2010. The difference between the estimates published in 2011 and 2012 is
largely due to revised estimates of the school-age population by the UN Population Division. The
latest evidence shows that the numbers out of school have remained virtually unchanged
between 2008 and 2010 (see Figure 1).
2. The data are from international household surveys conducted between 2003 and 2010: (1)
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS): Philippines 2003; Chad, Morocco, Turkey 2004; Ethiopia,
Guinea, Senegal, 2005; Burkina Faso, India, Mali, Nepal, the Niger, Uganda 2006; Indonesia,
Pakistan, Ukraine, Zambia 2007; Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria 2008; Kenya, Madagascar 2009; Colombia
and United Republic of Tanzania 2010. (2) Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS): Cameroon,
Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire 2006; Mauritania 2007; Mozambique 2008. (3) Pesquisa
Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD): Brazil 2006.
3. Data on disparities in access to education for 80 countries are available online via the
Education for All Global Monitoring Report’s Deprivation and Marginalization in Education (DME)
dataset at www.unesco.org/en/efareport/dme.
4. The following discussion draws on sections of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 EFA Global Monitoring
Reports. Unless otherwise is stated, all references to the evidence presented in this paper can
be found in these Reports.
5. UNICEF. 2008. The State of the World’s Children 2009. Maternal and Newborn Health. New
York, UNICEF.
6. UNESCO. 2011. UNESCO’s Strategy for HIV and AIDS. Paris, UNESCO.
7. UNESCO. 2011. School-Based Sexuality Education Programmes: A Cost and CostEffectiveness Analysis in Six Countries. Paris, UNESCO.
8. The World Bank. 2009. Age at First Child: Does Education Delay Fertility Timing? Policy
Re
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