Defending the motion
- Wes Wasson
- We are witnessing the early stages of a shift in eras that will ultimately prove to be just as significant as the one that ushered in the PC era more than 30 years ago.
Against the motion
- Frank X. Shaw
- How can we be in a "post-PC era" when there will be 500m PCs sold per year, and 2 billion PCs in use around the world, in 2015?
The moderator's closing remarks
Nov 2nd 2011 | Martin Giles
In his closing remarks, Wes Wasson says that debates, when executed well, have an extraordinary ability to evoke passion in those taking part in them. Judging by that yardstick, our discussion around whether or not the world has entered a post-PC era has been a great success. There has been plenty of passionate and pithy argument on both sides of the floor and there is still time for more as we enter the closing stages of our debate.
The weight of opinion among our audience is still against the motion, with many readers predicting a long and healthy life ahead for the personal computer. "I don't see anything replacing the PC until we have a neural link," says Kroneborge, and several comments from the floor point out that PCs with large screens and powerful processors are still ideal ways to produce and consume oodles of content.
But the crux of the debate is whether one sees the motion as referring to the PC as a device or to the notion that it represents an era of computing that is now fading fast. In his closing remarks, Mr Wasson reiterates his view that while the PC is not "a grandpa box", it is has become just one part of a vast ecosystem of devices connected to the computing cloud. According to this argument, an epochal shift is indeed taking place and in hindsight we will come to realise how big a transformation this is.
Some readers have sided with Mr Wasson. "I think the PC era has peaked," says Jon Hurd. "The cloud/mobile/tablet world that is emerging will only get better and continue to take on the jobs previously done by the PC." Ciocalesku is another reader who believes that the PC's influence is waning, though it remains useful for certain niche tasks. The Reveller sees the rise of ubiquitous web access and new technologies such as server virtualisation as evidence of a new computing era in which the restrictions associated with the PC are being swept away.
In his closing remarks, Frank Shaw fills out his prior arguments by claiming that those who paint a picture of a post-PC world are typically trying to reap commercial gain by doing so. And he claims that the PC will continue to evolve in ways that will ensure its longevity.
In their comments from the floor, a number of readers echo Mr Shaw's point that we are now in a PC-plus world in which new devices will complement rather than replace laptops and desktops. HBSa5bUeHc says he travels with both a PC and a tablet, and Farrell Vinay notes that the PC is still going strong even though "a lot of devices have been added to the techno-stew". Several readers such as guest-ieieooi and Shankarsubraalso believe that emerging markets may well give sales of PCs a fillip in future.
Messrs Wasson and Shaw have done an excellent job of framing our debate and the stimulating contributions from our guests, Douglas Neal and Steve Buehler, have further enriched it. But it has also benefited from excellent comments from the floor. There are still a few days left for new contributors to add their thoughts to our discussion—and for those who have already commented to respond to points that have been raised by others. Please do tell us what you think.
The proposer's closing remarks
Nov 2nd 2011 | Wes Wasson
Debates are funny things. When executed well, they have an extraordinary ability to evoke passion in listeners, inspiring them to take firm positions on an issue with heartfelt conviction. I am delighted to see this topic has struck just such a nerve with readers.
This reaction is all the more fascinating, of course, when you consider that the two sides in this particular debate are advocating nearly identical worldviews. Both Frank Shaw and I agree that the PC ushered in an entirely new era—one that awakened the imagination of millions, and changed the world forever. Both of us share a clear conviction that PCs remain the single best platform for creating new content, and that all the exciting new devices coming on the scene in recent years are merely joining the PC on a far bigger stage, not replacing it. It is also clear that neither Citrix nor Microsoft care much for the deliberately provocative term "post PC", and the way it has been waved in the streets as a rallying cry by those promoting an agenda.
To suggest we are somehow debating the viability of the PC misses the point. As Mr Shaw so eloquently points out, iPads and smartphones will no more replace the PC than SUVs, minivans and hybrids replaced the traditional family sedan. With all due respect to Scott Adams and his brilliant wit, I think it is safe to say that the advent of the "grandpa box" era has been somewhat exaggerated.
The central issue at hand is not whether PCs fade away. It is whether the changes we see playing out today are merely incremental additions at the margin, or whether they are the first signs of something far more transformational.
I, for one, believe we are witnessing the early stages of a shift in eras that will ultimately prove to be just as significant as the one that ushered in the PC era itself more than 30 years ago. To downplay the impact of this transformation simply because traditional PCs will continue to play a key role going forward is to miss something profound.
In this new era, you will be able to pick up any device you choose and have instant, secure access to your personal apps, documents, content and social networks—all seamlessly presented in a way that fits your location, role and context. You won't have to think about where you were when you created something, who sent it to you, or what device it was saved on. It won't matter which apps were designed to run on which operating systems.
This new era will see an explosion of innovative new devices, apps and cloud services—things we have not even imagined today—innovations that profoundly change the way we work, live and play.
These changes will happen far faster than many think. Eighteen months ago, the iPad did not exist. Yet by the end of this year, the total combined sales of tablets and smartphones will exceed that of traditional PCs. By 2015, sales of tablets and smartphones are expected to reach more than 1.3 billion units, more than double that of PCs and laptops (Gartner, 2011).
This growth will be fed by entirely new ways to interact with devices. Within two years, Gartner predicts downloads from mobile app stores will pass 70 billion per year. It will also be fuelled by a new generation of users with entirely different expectations—those who grew up with small screens, touch and mobility as their centre of gravity—for both creation and consumption of information. And it will be fuelled by billions of new consumers in emerging markets: consumers who started with mobile devices and small screens and stepped up to PCs over time, rather than the other way around.
This era will also be characterised by hundreds of millions of non-traditional devices that further blur the lines of computing. Everything from gaming systems and TVs, to shop-floor equipment and hospital workstations—all connected to the internet, the cloud and each other.
Over the next few years, it is clear that what we traditionally think of as the PC will be but one part of a vast ecosystem of interconnected devices and services. At what point do we decide that the PC we all know and love is no longer the centre of the universe that everything in computing revolves around? Or do we simply redefine the PC at some point to include a far greater array of devices and services—ones that capture the magic and inspiration of "personal computing" for a new generation? Ultimately, as with all technology, I believe what matters most is not what we call it, but how we use it to affect the world around us for good. That is something that never goes out of style.
The opposition's closing remarks
Nov 2nd 2011 | Frank X. Shaw
My first computer, which occupies a space in my basement and boots on MS-DOS 5.1, was the IBM Personal Portable. It has two 5.25-inch floppy drives, an Intel 8088 processor and 512 kilobytes of memory. Oh, yes, it weighs 30lb.
Today my PC of choice is the sleek Samsung 9 notebook. It has got a 128 gigabyte solid-state drive, an Intel i5 processor, 8 gigabytes of memory and an HD graphics card. And, oh yes, it weighs less than 3lb.
But the biggest point to take from this stunning evolution is this: the idea of the PC is alive and well and shining through, although some of the original form factors (like my PC Portable) have indeed gone post.
That is what makes participating in the tech industry so compelling. The pace of change and innovation is staggering, and it is only accelerating. Look at how the chip companies, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm and NVIDIA, continue to drive down price performance, and the PC manufacturers themselves, HP, Dell, Lenovo, Apple, Acer, Asus and others, continue to produce all kinds of form factors (all-in-ones, slates, tablets, etc) to address the evolving needs and tastes of consumers.
How can we be in a "post-PC era" when there will be 500m PCs sold per year, and 2 billion PCs in use around the world, in 2015?
As I said in my opening argument, if you watch this video of Michael Angiulo, corporate vice-president for Windows planning, hardware and PC ecosystem, demonstrating the amazing ingenuity that our hardware partners are bringing to next-generation PCs, you will have a hard time defending any notion of a post-PC era.
For those without the time to view the video, here is a brief summary of some highlights. Mr Angiulo:
• demonstrates a PC that boots in eight seconds;
• discusses the amazing chip performance coming from ARM, system on a chip and other vendors;
• notes that with Windows 7 you could boot from a 2 terabyte drive – with Windows 8 you will be able to boot from a 256 terabyte drive;
• highlights improvements in glass, touch sensors, accelerometers and magnetometers, and shows a robotic finger that tests how a PC screen responds to human touch; and
• shows three amazing new PCs with unique styles that are super thin and light.
• notes that with Windows 7 you could boot from a 2 terabyte drive – with Windows 8 you will be able to boot from a 256 terabyte drive;
• highlights improvements in glass, touch sensors, accelerometers and magnetometers, and shows a robotic finger that tests how a PC screen responds to human touch; and
• shows three amazing new PCs with unique styles that are super thin and light.
Let's be blunt—some of the loudest voices saying we are in a post-PC era are people who want to sell phones or mainframes or services or iPads or other non-PC devices, and would like consumers to believe that PCs are dead or soon will be. Today, these devices can be great for specific scenarios, and are awesome as companions to PCs—but they do not replace the PC.
It is much more accurate to say that the PC is alive and well, innovating and evolving rapidly, and selling hundreds of millions of units per year—at the same time that we are seeing massive growth in smartphones, slates, tablets, e-readers and cloud services. We are really in the "PC-plus era".
So what does the future look like?
Well, it looks like a world in which an expanding middle class worldwide will utilise an array of devices (PCs, phones, TVs, specialised devices) connected via fat pipes to "the cloud", delivering breathtaking experiences that will affect how we live, love, work and play.
We envision a future with displays that are light, portable, flexible and cheap, allowing us to carry them as easily as we carry a magazine today. These 3D displays will be embedded wherever they are useful—home, work, public spaces—and provide instant access to the information we need. And increasingly, these devices will work on our behalf, sensing what we need, without prompting. And you know what? We will call these devices PCs.
It is a future that looks a little like this.
The great computer scientist and researcher Alan Kay once said: "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
That is what Microsoft and others in our industry are doing; inventing a PC-plus future based on the belief that technology can change the world for the better, improving the lives of billions.
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